Lake Huron Water Levels

I was down at the shoreline this morning at my favorite launch site. There is a rock that I use as a gauge for lake levels. Normally the top of the rock is above the waterline by a couple of inches. I last looked at this particular rock the last day of the Chantry. In 6 weeks, the water level of Huron has gone down 18"!!
Forget launching at Baie du Dor - I doubt you could get a boat off of a trailer!
Has anyone ever seen this type of dramatic lake level decline in such a short amount of time????

I thought it was my imagination. I have been fishing owen sound and scratched my head the other night thinking "wasn't that ladder below the water line before ? "

Thanks Jim. It is staggering at how quickly the level has dropped. I measured the rock and it is 18" to the waterline from where it was at the conclusion of the Chantry. I am hoping a lifelong resident from the shoreline tells me to relax that it is just a normal September cycle, but I sure am worried........

http://www.waterlevels.gc.ca/C&A/netgraphs_e.html

Another possibility are the wind directions changing the water levels between the two times you observed the rock. If you checked the first time with predominantly west winds and the second time during winds out of the east, it might explain the scenario as the winds push the water from side to side over a large area. I notice this up in purgatory cove where our cottage is. Not sure if this is the case, just a possibility.

That being said; there's no doubt the water levels are falling, but I doubt it's 18 inches in six weeks.

Elias.

Thanks Elias. I call the lake rise and fall because of the wind conditions the "swish". This drop is just too much for the swish. I am encouraged that the long term average shows it slightly below normal. I just hope we get 8' of snow this winter to help bring some stability back..........

Here's the thing about lake effect snow:
It really has no positives for the overall lake levels since the moisture comes from the lake and drains back. Better to have rain storms that come up the Mississippi valley once a week and drop an inch at a time. Dreaming again....

Thanks Bill. Let's keep dreaming that the rains come. I just want to be able to launch my boat and wet a line........

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Originally posted by Michael Hahn
Thanks Bill. Let's keep dreaming that the rains come. I just want to be able to launch my boat and wet a line........

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Mike...we will just have to get you out on a kayak then...there will be no issues launching at the Baie.:cool:

Could I be trusted in a kayak Mike?????

Was down to my daughters near Belle River this weekend and was at her father in laws for a while . He has a river running at the back of his property that runs into Lake St Clair and it is the lowest I've seen it in the fifteen years I've been going there . Also took a walk over to the lake and the lake is way , way down . looks like levels are down all over .

All boaters take care out there , Neil.

Mike
I too noticed the lake levels are way way down.
I walk along the board walk every day almost here in Southampton and was thinking this morning wow is the lake ever low. Now a east wind will lower the lake but we have had no east winds for at least a week.
As mentioned we need some fresh rain from the Mississippi Valley as that is the only way I see we can get back some water for our Great Lakes as snow just won't do it.

Ususally we get our lowest lake levels in the spring so who knows what next spring will bring.
Iv'e seen rocks I have never seen before above water or even knew existed.

Bob

I was just in Port Elgin and couldn't believe the kids floating fishing dock is resting on the shore. Only part of the floatation barrels are in the water.

Thanks Guys.

I cannot imagine the lake level falling more in the Spring!! The Kincardine and Port Elgin launches will have a 3 hour waiting time to get our boats in the water.........

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Originally posted by JackFrank
I was just in Port Elgin and couldn't believe the kids floating fishing dock is resting on the shore. Only part of the floatation barrels are in the water.

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Yes I noticed that as well. I can tell you earlier this summer they were actually floating on water.

Michael, like you I have noticed this dramatic drop in water levels and it sure it alarming. But to put a positive, during the summer on more than one occasion I saw the water level in the marina rise 6" - likely a result of the large 'swish' you mentioned.

There is no doubt that lake levels are down everywhere from the hot dry summer, but I how the 'swish' is making it look worse than in actually is.

Thanks Chris. I guess we let the Mississippi Rain Makers dance away and hope for the best!!!!

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Originally posted by Michael Hahn
Thanks Chris. I guess we let the Mississippi Rain Makers dance away and hope for the best!!!!

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Hope it works, can't help but it's (The river) the cause to begin with.

Lake Os north shore is the worst I've ever witnessed. Virtually every marsh are mud flats right now.

Thanks John. You have a lot of nice pics on your site.

It's bad all around. G'Bay is the lowest I've seen it in years if not ever.

Speaking of the mississippi isn't that where the great lakes water going? Correct me if I'm wrong? Please.....

With this low water were showing a few more tiny Islands on Georgian BAy - I'm talking about a couple feet of rock showing- Perfect for setting up a dozen or so floaters and wait for those bird water ducks to come flying by.

Ryan

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Originally posted by james vandivier
Speaking of the mississippi isn't that where the great lakes water going? Correct me if I'm wrong? Please.....

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You're wrong. A year or so ago I attended the public info session of the study group commissioned by the IJC. One of the points that they made was that the main to factors that determine Lake Michigan-Huron levels are local inflow from the watershed and evaporation. i.e. even the inflow from Superior and the outflow thru Lake St. Clair was less important. The amount going down the Miss is quite insignificant.

This study group seem quite professional and I have no reason to doubt their integrity. Even if they were willing to 'cook the books' to give a biased result, it's hard to imagine the IJC asking them to do that since the IJC itself has many divergent interests. It's hard to see them reach any kind of consensus as to what conclusions they wanted the study group to come to.

So the water level in Huron is an environmental issue, not a political one---unless you count global warming as a political issue.

Alright good to know.

Alright good to know.Oops friggen iPad

Lake Erie is the lowest it's been since the mid 50's!!!!! I confirmed this with local commercial fisherman in Port Dover. I have a cottage on Erie, and there's more beach and rocks exposed than I had ever seen. Global warming, hot dry summer(July anyways) and no drainage from head waters due to lack of snow/rain last winter. Then there's the American's draining it off also!!

http://www.lfpress.com/2012/10/11/la...cord-low-level

This report states that Lake Huron will break records for the lowest lake levels in almost 70 years in early 2013.

climate change not global warming

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Originally posted by john oconnor
climate change not global warming

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I know that global warming is just 1 type of climate change, but that would seem to be the type at work here. Or do you have info that would suggest another type of climate change is responsible for the dropping lake levels?

Hopefully we can recover from the record low level like we did in 1964. I can remember record hig levels in the early 80's.
Hopefully it's only a cycle.

One thing I always find odd is how we talk of record high temps and record low lake levels but the records we are breaking are from the 40's to the 70's and we somehow managed to recover.
I wish I could find the article about Global warming and what a hoax it was. The scientist crying Global Warming are the ones getting grants from the goverments to investigate the problem. So if they said it was a just a cycle and nothing to worry about then it would the end of their free grant money.

Just a thought.

Bob

Here is the link I was looking for

John Coleman weather channel founder debunks the global warming hoax

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D8Fhm...yer_detailpage

Bob

If they are taking water down the Mississippi & they are, it sure isn't helping.
Tight Lines Richard ?fish

You are right on that one Richard.
And I beleive someone said they put a plug in Superior to keep its water level up.
So between those 2 things it can't be good news for the rest of the Great Lakes.

Bob

Just to add a bit more info:

I attended the public hearing of the IJC study group in Collingwood a year or so ago. 2 points that were made that evening were (1)changes to the St. Clair River had a relatively minor effect. The study concluded that the difference was in the 70-140 cm range(see below). (2)The two primary variables affecting the Michigan-Huron water levels were, on the - side, evaporation from Mich-Huron and, on the + side, direct flow into the watershed i.e that flow overshadowed flow from Superior.

From their website:
http://www.iugls.org/Decision_tree_tool
Key Findings
ST. CLAIR RIVER HAS CHANGED, ACCOUNTING FOR 7-14 CM OF TOTAL HEAD DECLINE


INCREASING PRECIPITATION HAS SOMEWHAT OFFSET INCREASING EVAPORATION ON MICHIGAN-HURON AND ERIE, BUT NOT ON SUPERIOR
Description
The Study sought to improve the accuracy and consistency in net basin supply (NBS) estimates through modification of existing models, development of new models, collection of new data, and improvement of a range of methodologies that have been used for lake level estimation. It was concluded that the improved estimates of runoff, evaporation and over-lake precipitation still incorporate and introduce significant uncertainty into the overall water balance. Despite uncertainties, the Study concluded that it is clear that lake evaporation is increasing and likely will increase for the foreseeable future, likely due to the lack of ice-cover, increasing surface water temperatures and wind speeds. Analysis indicates that in the Lake Michigan-Huron basin, this increased evaporation is being largely offset by increases in local precipitation. In the Lake Superior basin, however, increasing evaporation over the past 60 years has not been compensated for by increased precipitation. As a result, NBS have been declining in general in the basin. This trend is consistent with the current understanding of climate change. Unless changes in the precipitation regime occur, which is possible, NBS in Lake Superior will continue to decline, on average, despite the possibility of higher water supplies at times. It will be important to ensure that further climate analysis be undertaken to explore these dynamics and provide more certainty of future NBS estimates.

Agree with all. I was able to walk the north pier last week and my visual marker was down from last fall which then was the lowest that I and others who have lived here longer have seen. Never mind snow - it's been the very dry summers over recent years that concern me. Summers have been the killer.

My parents live on the St. Clair River in Port lambton. The situation is very noticeable from my parents dock, and he is concerned that he may not even be able to use his boat lift due to the shallow water. On another note, and I don't know if it is connected but the bass fishing off of his dock was unbelievable. Every cast produced fish, with 6-12 other fish chasing the hooked fish as it was reeled in.

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Originally Posted by Jason Kiffman

My parents live on the St. Clair River in Port lambton. The situation is very noticeable from my parents dock, and he is concerned that he may not even be able to use his boat lift due to the shallow water. On another note, and I don't know if it is connected but the bass fishing off of his dock was unbelievable. Every cast produced fish, with 6-12 other fish chasing the hooked fish as it was reeled in.

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Not a good sign of the times.

Jason, If you could give me the co-ordinates of the dock in question, I could conduct my own study... (spin rod in hand)

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Originally Posted by Paul Weiler

Not a good sign of the times.

Jason, If you could give me the co-ordinates of the dock in question, I could conduct my own study... (spin rod in hand)

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LOL-----To be honest I think it was good all along that shoreline. The walleye fishing though has really fallen off.